That’s the terrifying headline of a September 2019 article in the Daily Mail, a UK tabloid newspaper.
The story was shared on Facebook in South Africa and flagged as possibly false by the social network’s fact-checking system. This prompted Africa Check to investigate.
Is the headline correct?
Preparedness for global health emergencies
The document the article talks about is A World at Risk, an annual report on how ready the world is to deal with major health emergencies, such as outbreaks of disease.
The most recent version was published in September 2019 by the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, an independent monitoring and accountability body set up by the World Health Organization to “advance the common objective of ensuring preparedness for global health emergencies”, its website says.
The GPMB has two co-chairs. One is Dr Gro Harlem Brundtland, a former prime minister of Norway and director-general of the WHO from 1998 to 2003. The other is Elhadj As Sy, the secretary-general of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.
World travel times 36 hours
In the executive summary of A World at Risk, the GPMB declares that the world “is not prepared for a fast-moving, virulent respiratory pathogen pandemic”.
“The 1918 global influenza pandemic sickened one third of the world population and killed as many as 50 million people – 2.8% of the total population,” it says.
The 1918 pandemic, caused by a form of bird flu, was the most severe worldwide pandemic in recent history.
“If a similar contagion occurred today with a population four times larger and travel times anywhere in the world less than 36 hours, 50-80 million people could perish,” the GPMB report says.
“In addition to tragic levels of mortality, such a pandemic could cause panic, destabilize national security and seriously impact the global economy and trade.”
Yes, a report produced by a body co-chaired by a former head of the World Health Organization has warned that a flu-like illness could circulate the world in 36 hours and kill up to 80 million people, if we continue to be unprepared. – Sam Ancer
For publishers: what to do if your post is rated false
A fact-checker has rated your Facebook or Instagram post as “false”, “altered”, “partly false” or “missing context”. This could have serious consequences. What do you do?
Click on our guide for the steps you should follow.Publishers guide
Africa Check teams up with Facebook
Africa Check is a partner in Facebook’s third-party fact-checking programme to help stop the spread of false information on social media.
The content we rate as “false” will be downgraded on Facebook and Instagram. This means fewer people will see it.
You can also help identify false information on Facebook. This guide explains how.