IN SHORT: Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga is vying for the position of chairperson of the African Union Commission. On the eve of a live debate among candidates, a digital card with an opinion poll declaring Odinga was in the lead began circulating on social media. However, the poll is fake.
Raila Odinga is Kenya’s former prime minister. In February 2023, he announced his bid to chair the African Union Commission (AUC).
The AUC is the secretariat of the African Union (AU) and manages the day-to-day activities of the 55-country bloc. It is headquartered in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
With elections for a new chair scheduled for February 2025, the AU hosted “Mjadala Afrika”, the AUC chair candidates debate on 13 December 2024.
On the eve of the debate, a graphic with an opinion poll indicating that Odinga was in the lead began circulating on social media in Kenya.
The graphic has the logo of the pan-African policy research, training and consulting think tank Amani Africa. It suggests that Odinga is the popular candidate with 80% of the votes, while Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf has 8% and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato has 2%.
The graphic has been shared here, here and here.
But did Amani Africa really publish this poll? We checked.
‘Utterly irresponsible’
At first glance, the digital card with the opinion poll has a grammatical error. It says that 10% of respondents are “undicided” instead of “undecided”. It is unlikely that a credible organisation like Amani Africa would make such a mistake.
On 13 December, Amani Africa posted the image of the circulating poll with the word “fake” across it in red.
“This is utterly irresponsible. The use of an organization that never undertook a poll is disinformation, misinformation and maliciously criminal. Amani Africa totally rejects this act and demands the immediate withdrawal of the use of its logo,” reads their post on their official X account.
Additionally, no credible media organisations have published the poll, indicating that it is fake.
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