Is Cape Town South Africa's second most dangerous city? Here's what the numbers show

The article attributes this claim to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). However, the link provided leads to the Our World in Data platform.

Our World in Data does not independently record crime statistics but collects them from reputable sources and presents them visually. In this case, the murder data was sourced from the UNODC, “with major processing by Our World in Data”. 

The website notes that in 2024, Jamaica recorded a murder rate of 49.3 per 100,000 people. The rate for Ecuador was 45.7 per 100,000, and South Africa 43.7 per 100,000. 

But Africa Check could not find these same figures in the UNODC Homicide Data Portal.

The portal only includes murder rates up until 2023, and even data for that year is limited to certain countries. The UNODC recorded a murder rate of 49.44 per 100,000 for Jamaica and 45.72 per 100,000 for Ecuador. But the Caribbean countries of Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines had higher murder rates. 

South Africa’s rate of 43.72 is from 2022. David Rausis, a statistician at the UNODC, told Africa Check that the data did not cover all countries for all years, and that any rankings were therefore limited to countries with available data. 

He also said that the portal would be updated with 2024 figures in due course and confirmed that the UNODC did not have murder data for South Africa for 2023.

Looking just at 2022 data from the UNODC, South Africa had the third-highest murder rate (43.7) among countries and territories with available data, following the Turks and Caicos Islands (76.3) and Jamaica (53.1). 

But, as Rausis emphasised, “it is possible that there are some countries which had higher homicide rates in 2022. The UNODC, therefore, doesn’t know whether South Africa was the third-highest country in terms of homicide rate”.

Limitations when comparing across jurisdictions

According to the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), a South African policy thinktank, South Africa’s 2022/2023 murder rate was 45 per 100,000 people.

Lizette Lancaster, head of the Justice and Violence Prevention Programme at the ISS, told Africa Check: “We do have to be careful when comparing murder data across jurisdictions because of the differences in definitions, counting rules, collection methodologies and reliability of data.”

David Bruce, an independent researcher on policing and public security, said: “Cross-country comparisons can be useful, though there are limitations, including differences in approaches to classifying murder and the reliability of recording.” 

“But they certainly provide a benchmark for evaluating whether levels of violence in a country might be seen as relatively normal or exceptional … perhaps the first and most important question that the high rate of murder [in South Africa] raises is why this is not treated as a more urgent problem.”

For accurate information about crime levels in South African cities, Lancaster referred Africa Check to the South African Cities Network (SACN), a group of cities and partners that works to exchange information and experience about best practice in urban development.

In 2024, the network published its State of Urban Safety in South Africa report. It analyses the state of crime and violence in nine of the country’s major cities and metropolitan municipalities: Johannesburg, Cape Town, eThekwini, Ekurhuleni, Tshwane, Nelson Mandela Bay, Mangaung, Buffalo City and Msunduzi. 

Based on crime statistics released by the South African Police Service for 2022/23, the report shows Nelson Mandela Bay had the highest murder rate, at 103 murders per 100,000 people. This was followed by eThekwini at 76 per 100,000, Msunduzi at 69 per 100,000 and Cape Town at 68 per 100,000. 

Cape Town therefore ranked fourth and not second, as claimed.  

Source: South African Cities Network (2024)

Siphelele Ngobese, a researcher at SACN, confirmed that the report relied on annual national crime statistics, based on police precinct boundaries. These statistics were then aggregated to the city level. 

“We eagerly await the latest crime stats, which will cover the 2023/24 cycle. Those are usually released anytime between September and December of every year,” she told Africa Check.

Ngobese said the report included historical data, which showed Nelson Mandela Bay overtook Cape Town as the city with the highest murder rate in 2020/21.

Source: South African Cities Network (2024)

As statistics for 2023/24 have not yet been released, there is no evidence to support the claim that Cape Town had the second-highest murder rate of any municipality in 2024.