The public debate in Kenya has in recent months been dominated by the state of the economy, which the current government blames on the administration it replaced in September 2022.
Ventures Africa was correct that Kenyatta’s administration borrowed KSh4.1 trillion in its last five years in power, corroborated by Kenyan national treasury data.
The overall borrowing under Kenyatta more than quadrupled Kenya’s public debt, to a whopping KSh8.58 trillion, roughly US$73 billion.
In January, when news that the country was looking to take on more debt first broke, Ventures Africa, a Nigerian media publication, attributed the borrowing appetite to the “bottom-up” economic policy of the current administration.
President William Ruto has been in office since September 2022.
As the conversation continued, the artificial intelligence tools that Africa Check uses to monitor public debate online picked up two claims about Kenya’s public debt, allowing us to revisit the debate about former president Uhuru Kenyatta’s legacy.
We vetted them for accuracy.
In reference to news that Ruto’s government would borrow KSh3.6 trillion in his first term, Ventures Africa said this amount was “equivalent to 89% of the record Sh4.1 trillion borrowed by his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, in the five years leading up to June 2022”.
(Note: KSh3.6 trillion is about US$27 billion at time of publication. Due to a sharp currency depreciation in recent months this figure is used only for illustration.)
We found the same claim in an article in Business Daily, a Kenyan newspaper. The story was published on 24 January, two days before the one in Ventures Africa.
Business Daily cited the national treasury as the source of the KSh4.1 trillion figure.
The treasury publishes annual public debt reports. These show trends in public debt at the end of each financial year, which in Kenya runs from 1 July to 30 June.
The data shows that between 30 June 2017 and 30 June 2022 public debt increased by KSh4.18 trillion.
The numbers are taken from the debt reports for the financial years 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19, 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22.
In August 2022, the last full month of Kenyatta's second term, the debt stood at KSh8.7 trillion. Between December 2017 and August 2022, public debt increased by KSh4.1 trillion. – Grace Gichuhi
At the end of this financial year, 30 June 2013, total debt stood at KSh1.89 trillion, according to the national treasury’s annual debt reports.
In August 2022, the last full month of Kenyatta's second term, debt was at KSh8.7 trillion. The total debt more than quadrupled from KSh1.79 trillion to KSh8.7 trillion. This is an increase of 383% or almost five times.
The claim checks out. We therefore rate it mostly correct. – Dancan Bwire
Kenya’s forex pain
Exchange rate fluctuations have a significant impact on Kenya’s public debt.
In dollar terms, the increase is 247%, or just over three times.