Sona 2026 data showed modest economic progress in South Africa before Middle East conflict cast a shadow

Gross domestic product, or GDP,  is the value of goods and services produced in a country in a given period, usually a year.

Data from the country’s statistics agency, Statistics South Africa, supports the president’s claim. Positive growth has been recorded since the fourth quarter of 2024. 

Source: Stats SA, constant 2015 prices, seasonally adjusted. 

Data for the fourth quarter of 2025 was released in March 2026 and shows that GDP grew by a further 0.4%.  

Trade and Industrial Policy Studies (TIPS), an economic research institution based in Pretoria, said that this GDP growth represented a “return to relatively stable economic growth”, although the rate was still low by global standards.

Not all MPs agreed that the economic outlook was positive. MP for the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, Des van Rooyen, who also had a brief stint as finance minister in 2015, said recent GDP growth was “minor” and that “if a nation’s economy grows slower than its population, it is not progressing”. 

Neva Makgetla, a senior economist at TIPS, told Africa Check that “if GDP is growing more slowly than population growth, then by definition primary income is declining”. 

She said data from the South African Reserve Bank showed that GDP per person fell between 2014 and 2024. She added that GDP had grown by 1.9% up until the third quarter. 

At the same time, Stats SA’s mid-year population estimates showed population growth of 1.2% from 2024 to 2025. 

“By extension, the GDP per person grew in the year to the third quarter of 2025,” Makgetla said. 

Data for the fourth quarter of 2025 confirms the same is true for the whole calendar year. 

Two MPs repeated Ramaphosa’s claim during the debates: John Steenhuisen of the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Khusela Sangoni of the African National Congress (ANC). 

The main measure of inflation is the consumer price index (CPI), which shows how the prices of commonly bought goods change over time.  

CPI rates change during the year, so there were months in the past 20 years when inflation was lower than at any time in 2025. A better way to compare inflation is by using the average CPI rate for a year. This measures the average change in prices over 12 months compared with the same months the year before. 

The average CPI rate for 2025 was 3.2%. The last year with a lower average was 2004, at 1.4%, although 2020 was close, at 3.3%.

This is more notable than it seems at first. Excluding 2004, the last time the average CPI rate fell below 3.2% was in 1969 (3.0%).

Another key measure of inflation is the producer price index (PPI). Like CPI, it measures the cost of a bundle of goods, but it tracks how much manufacturers charge rather than how much end-consumers pay.

The average PPI rate for 2025 was 1.5%. This is the lowest figure since at least 2013. Stats SA does not calculate records further back than this.

An interest rate is the cost of borrowing money, usually calculated as a percentage of the original loan amount.

Dr Grant Son, a business and governance consultant, told Africa Check that, in simple terms, interest rates are like the price tag of money. They determine how much it costs to borrow and how much you earn when you save.

“When you take out a loan, the bank charges you interest as the price of using their money. When you save, the bank pays you interest as a reward for letting them use your money,” Son said.

In South Africa, the most important interest rate is the repo rate, set by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). It determines how much it costs commercial banks to borrow money from the central bank. 

As of March 2026, the repo rate was 6.75%. This followed a series of rate cuts after interest rates peaked at over 8% in 2023 and 2024. 

The effect of falling interest rates

Son said that lower interest rates made borrowing cheaper. For consumers, this can reduce monthly repayments on home loans, car loans and other debts, leaving more disposable income. For businesses, lower rates reduce the cost of funding investments, which may support growth and help create jobs.

However, lower interest rates are not always fully positive. If rates are cut too much or too quickly, people may borrow or spend too much, which can increase inflation. 

Son said future interest rate changes would depend on several factors, including inflation trends, global economic conditions, the strength of the rand, and South Africa’s fiscal position.

“If inflation continues to ease and global conditions remain stable, particularly in the US and other major economies, further reductions could be possible. However, if inflationary pressures resurface or the currency weakens significantly, the SARB may hold or even raise rates again.” 

This claim about borrowing costs was repeated during the debates by Steenhuisen. 

Borrowing costs are the expenses a borrower pays to get money from a lender. Governments borrow when the money they collect from taxes is not enough to cover their spending.

When this happens, a gross borrowing requirement is set to show how much the government will need to borrow. “This borrowing requirement is financed through borrowing in both domestic and foreign markets, as well as the use of available cash balances,” the national treasury told Africa Check.

Borrowing costs can rise or fall depending on whether lenders believe the government can repay its debt. The country’s overall economic health and the integrity of its state institutions are considered. 

The treasury said that debt servicing costs – the money the government pays in interest and other borrowing costs – depended on the total amount of debt, the cost of new borrowing, changes in interest rates, inflation and the exchange rate.

The treasury confirmed that borrowing costs had fallen. This was one reason why debt-servicing costs were expected to grow by an average of 3.7% a year between 2026/27 and 2028/29 – lower than the earlier estimate of 7.4%.

High debt-servicing costs negatively affect government spending because they “reduce the resources available for other essential public services, such as health and education,” the treasury said. 

This claim was repeated by Steenhuisen and the ANC’s Nonceba Gcaleka-Mazibuko during the Sona debates. 

A budget surplus means that the government earned more than it spent in a given period. A primary budget surplus excludes money spent on interest payments on national debt, which for South Africa is substantial.  

According to the treasury, there was a primary surplus of R33.2 billion in 2023/24, equal to 0.5% of GDP. In 2024/25, the surplus was R51 billion, or 0.7% of GDP. This supports the treasury’s goal of stabilising national debt by reducing spending.

Jannie Rossouw is a professor of economics at the University of the Witwatersrand. He said the surplus was the “first step towards getting government debt under control”. But, he said, the total amount of government debt was an “obstacle in the quest to reach a primary surplus”.

Not everyone agrees that reducing debt by cutting spending should be the priority. The Institute for Economic Justice, a thinktank based in Johannesburg, has criticised the government’s approach for “failing to make use of the increased revenue collection for critical social needs”.

The institute argues that while reducing interest payments on national debt is good, it does not need to be accomplished by cutting public spending, especially when the country faces high levels of poverty, unemployment and struggling public services. 

Unemployment

Steenhuisen’s claim was repeated later in the debate by the ANC’s Sangoni. 

Stats SA collects employment data in its quarterly labour force surveys (QLFS). The latest survey, which covers the fourth quarter of 2025, shows that the unemployment rate of 31.4% is the lowest recorded since the third quarter of 2020, when it was 30.8%.

According to Stats SA, a person is employed if they are aged between 15 and 64 and have worked or had a job or business for at least one hour in the week StatsSA conducted the survey. 

Stats SA’s QLFS shows that around 44,000 more people were employed from October to December 2025 compared to the previous quarter. With around 17 million people employed at that time, this represents a 0.3% increase. 

Compared to the same quarter in 2024, employment rose by 0.1%, or about 21,000 more people employed. Ntshavheni, from the ANC and minister in the presidency, was correct.

Disagreeing with Ramaphosa’s assessment, leader of Build One South Africa, Mmusi Maimane, said there was another South Africa that needed to be acknowledged.   

He said the 12.4 million unemployed South Africans would not have felt any relief from Ramaphosa’s speech. 

Visvin Reddy of the MK Party expressed a similar view, but said the number of unemployed people was 8 million. 

Both MPs are correct. 

In the fourth quarter of 2025, 7.8 million people were unemployed. Under the expanded definition, which includes discouraged job seekers, the number rises to 12.4 million. 

Moving specifically to youth unemployment, Reddy claimed that six out of 10 young people had “no job”. 

Stats SA collects data on unemployed youth aged 15 to 34. A special category known as “youth not in employment, education or training”, or NEET, refers to those aged 15 to 24.

It is true that younger South Africans are more likely to be unemployed. In the fourth quarter of 2025, 57% of people aged 15 to 24 were unemployed. For those aged 25 to 34, the figure was 39.2%.

By the expanded definition of unemployment, 68.3% of those aged 15 to 24 were considered unemployed. The rate was 49.1% for the 25-to-34 age group.

Reddy’s claim is mostly correct. Almost six out of 10 people officially considered “young” (aged 15 to 34) were without a job. 

A similar claim – that youth unemployment is over 50% – made by the chief whip of the Economic Freedom Fighters, Noluthando Nolutshungu, is also correct. 

Focusing on how unemployment affects black South Africans, the DA’s George Michalakis stated an unemployment rate of 35.8%. 

His claim is correct according to the latest QLFS. Black South Africans had the highest unemployment rate of all racial groups. White South Africans had the lowest rate, at 8.1%.

Dr Amy Thornton is a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Cape Town’s Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit. She told Africa Check that “the unemployment rate varies significantly by race group in South Africa”. 

“The reasons for this disparity are structural and connected to corresponding disparities by race in socio-economic status, educational attainment, and where people live.” 

These issues need to be addressed together. Improving education alone would not reduce unemployment if there were no job opportunities where people lived, Thornton said. “Other dynamics related to global and local labour demand have also undermined improving equality in the labour market.”

Poverty

Stats SA's 2025 Poverty Trends Report, based on 2023 data, shows that 66.7% of South Africans live below the “upper-bound poverty line” (UBPL). That is two-thirds of the population, not half.

In 2023, a person lived below the UBPL if they earned less than R2,635 a month. This is only one of three measures of poverty used by Stats SA. The lowest is the food poverty line, which was R777 in 2023. This is the minimum amount needed to buy enough food for basic health. 

The lower-bound poverty line (LBPL) was R1,300. At this level, a person has to sacrifice food to afford other necessary items. Only people above the UBPL can afford to buy basic monthly necessities.

An estimated 37.9% of South Africans were below the LBPL, while 17.6% were in food poverty. Both figures have fallen since Stats SA started tracking them in 2006. 

Statistical changes make old reports outdated

In 2017, Stats SA reported that an estimated 55.5% of South Africans were below the UBPL in 2015. This might be where Maimane got his figure.

Poverty lines are regularly updated through a process called rebasing. This adjusts the lines to reflect what South Africans need to buy, and how far their money goes. The poverty lines were rebased before the 2025 Poverty Trends Report, which noted that the cost of non-food items was playing a bigger role, resulting in higher poverty rates.

Werner Ruch, director of money-metric poverty and inequality statistics at Stats SA, confirmed that the rebasing was the reason for the increase in the figures. The change also makes older reports incomparable with newer ones. “Ultimately, the poverty numbers reported in 2025 fully replace the previous estimates reported in 2017,” Ruch said.

This means that UBPL poverty should be seen as having fallen from 71.1% in 2015 to 66.7% in 2015. This is an improvement, but it still means about 40.8 million South Africans cannot afford their basic monthly needs.

The latest data from Stats SA shows that in 2023, 40.8 million people, or two-thirds of South Africans, lived below the UBPL of R2,635 per month. 

How does this compare to the price of a food basket? 

A food basket is often used to track changes in food prices.

The Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group designed a food basket based on items that women with low incomes said were the most important foods households tried to buy each month. In February 2026, this basket cost an average of R5,383.81. 

The basket includes 44 foods, which the group says is “not nutritionally complete”.

This claim by Zungula, who represents the African Transformation Movement in parliament, is correct. 

During his presidential campaign, Ramaphosa often called the previous ten years a “lost decade”. Sometimes he said “nine lost years” – the length of time that his predecessor, Jacob Zuma, was in office. 

Litchfield-Tshabalala, a member of the MK Party, which Zuma now leads, turned the term back on Ramaphosa, calling his own time as president a “lost decade”. She said his presidency had produced 3.6 million food-insecure and 2.8 million chronically food-insecure South Africans.

(Note: Ramaphosa took office in 2018, so as of 2026, he has not quite served a decade.)

Food insecurity, as defined by Stats SA, “exists when people are undernourished due to the physical unavailability of food, their lack of social or economic access, and/or inadequate food utilisation”. 

In a February 2025 report, Stats SA estimated that around 3.7 million households were food insecure in 2023, and 1.5 million were chronically food insecure. Chronic food insecurity is when “individuals are unable to meet their basic needs for an extended period of time”.

These figures are close to Litchfield-Tshabalala’s, but they refer to households, while the MP referred to individual people.

Stats SA does not estimate the number of individuals in food insecurity, but a 2026 report by the philanthropic organisation FoodForward SA estimated that there were 17.8 million food-insecure and 8 million “severely food insecure” people in South Africa. This represented an increase over previous years, a trend Stats SA also identified.

Food insecurity on the rise in South Africa and globally

South Africa is not unique in facing increasing food insecurity. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, food security has worsened around the globe, particularly in the years since 2020. 

The Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine were identified as major disruptions to global food supply. Together with economic trends like changes in global fiscal policies and a lack of wage growth in many countries, a “perfect storm” for food price inflation was created. The effect has been especially severe in Africa and in low-income countries.

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, said in a blog post about the Stats SA food security report: “Deteriorating food security is not due to a lack of nutritious, high-quality food, safe food products, or high prices. Access seems to be the fundamental challenge, especially for households with no regular income sources.”