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ANTICIPATED CHANGES IN THE FORESTRY SECTOR TO YEAR 2020

Forestry development is being driven by a host of factors most of which are not immediately apparent and so not obvious. However, the major and singular factor that is likely to shape forestry development in the future is land use. Most of the macro economic variables do not impact directly on wood products output but indirectly through round wood production. This is made possible through their effects on land use pattern.

 

Land Use Dynamics

An analysis of land use in Nigeria shows the annual changes as indicated in Table 6.

Table 6. Land use trends in Nigeria

Land use category

Annual Rate of Change (ha/year)

Agriculture (Intensive/Extensive)

554,657.10

Floodplain Agriculture

67,616.10

Grass land

131,224.60

Dominantly trees/woodlands/shrubs

-858,720.40

Dominantly shrubs and grasses

-104,974.30

Dominantly grasses

6166.16

Forest

-104,231.00

Freshwater marsh/swamp

-69,453.05

Forested freshwater swamp

1707.86

Mangrove forest

-14,982.77

Water

45,474.02

Bare surface

129,113.70

Agricultural cropland is consuming the largest chunk of 554,657.10 ha annually while dominant category of trees/woodlands and shrubs is loosing the largest chunk of 858,720.40 ha annually. A transition matrix was derived from the land use changes from 1978 to 1995 and was analysed by Markor Chains Analysis. The result was very revealing and the land use changes were predicted to the year 2020. The long run or steady state situation was also derived. The land use dynamics is summarised in Table 7.

The detailed analysis of the land use dynamics of Nigeria shows that while Agricultural crop land will increase from its present level of 61,900,000 ha in 1995 to 70,652,157 ha by 2020, forest land will decrease from 2,650,000 ha in 1995 to 938,066 ha by 2020.

It is easy to see that forestland and indeed all woodlands will be heavily depleted and converted to Agricultural crop land. At steady state situation even the land use such as flood plain agriculture and water resources development that enjoyed short-term advantage will eventually be depleted. This finding is consistent with general prediction of Conservation and Environmental Sciences.

 

Table 7. Comparative land use pattern 1995 to 2020 (ha)

Landuse category

Base Year 1995

Year 2010

Year 2020

Steady State

1.Agric.Crop land

61,900,000

68,063,519.12

70,652,157.4

87,408,772.80

2.Flood plain

Agriculture

2,400,000

3,141,000.30

3,390,061.50

479,782.74

3. Grassland

3,150,000

4,398,237.70

4,765,522.33

1,071,156.36

4. Dominantly trees/wood land

and shrub

9,000,000

3,866,595.70

2,276,169.60

7309.53

5.Dominant shrubs & grass

7,100,000

4,290,518.19

3,017,151.27

102,582.79

6.Dominantly grasses

1,100,000

1,065,057.36

1,040,003.02

227,529.66

7. Forest

2,650,000

1,436,848.03

938,066.41

928.69

8.Freshwater

mash/swamp

620,000

181,072.05

100,943.30

3534.37

9.Forested freshwater

swamp

1,800,000

1,820,088.57

1,834,929.55

3,134,485.64

10. Mangrove forest

1,190,000

978,706.18

845,074.30

701.26

11. Water

680,000

1,065,985.97

1,144,629.79

172,307.77

12. Bare surface

1,892,000

3,174,370.71

3,477,292.00

872,908.43

Total

93,482,000

93, 482,000.00

93,482,000

93,482.000

The consequences of the present land use trend on forestry development need no further elaboration. It will be catastrophic to say the least. The impact on biodiversity will be profound as most of the habitat for wildlife could be destroyed. This would also naturally imply that Nigeria would become a wood import dependent country. Fig. 4.1(a) and 4.1 (b) show the details of the use land use dynamics. Fig. 4.1(b) is a magnified version of the lower part of fig. 4.1(a). It is easy to see the trends very clearly.

We cannot afford this to happen because analysis carried out in this study revealed that an increase of N 1.0 million in Forestry output will induce N 76.226 million in the Agricultural crop sector; while the same increase in the Agricultural crop sector will only increase forestry output by N 13,000. This is a cause of grave concern because under the present paradigm, Agricultural crop production is calculated to defeat itself by systematically destroying the forest on which it depends. In addition the analysis also revealed that forestry has a propensity to induce investments in Nigeria compared to other sectors. While an output of N 1.0 million in construction will induce N 9.7 million of investment; Agricultural crop N 0.23 million, Petroleum N 0.16 million, Housing N 2.54 million, forestry on the other hand will induce N 17 million of investment. The forest needs to be saved!

 

Interpreting the observed changes

Econometrics and its extensions were used in this study to reveal the actual driving forces shaping forestry development in Nigeria. The model linked the forestry sub-sector to major macro economic variables which were together linked to land use. The data set used in the analysis consists of time series ranging from 1978 to 1995. They were assembled from Federal Office of Statistics (FOS), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), Petroleum and Forestry Data Bases. These were also complemented by field surveys. Some of the series were disjointed and have had to be interpolated based on available information. For example, the labour force and unemployment rate were interpolated from available FOS statistics and CBN statistics between 1963 and 1998. Productivity and average wage rates were then derived accordingly.

The structural parameters were estimated by regression analysis and the model comprised thirty-seven endogenous variables including one identity for GDP.

The major causes of deforestation have been traced to the bid to satisfy the demand for wood and wood products in Nigeria from domestic sources. Large areas of forest are cut down in the States in the bid to satisfy the demand for wood and wood products. These lands are either not regenerated naturally or replanted artificially for one reason or the other (inadequate funding is a possible reason) with the result that they are eventually converted into agricultural croplands, grasslands or just bushes and bare surfaces. This is evident in the following analysis

 

Roundwood Production

The production of 1,000 m3 of round wood will also produce 795 m3 of fuel wood and 34 m3 of saw log and veneer logs. However, this will involve the depletion of 36.8 ha of high forest, 310.8 ha of dominantly trees, woodlands and shrub lands, 43.7 ha of dominantly shrub and grasslands as well as 25.7 ha of fresh water marsh and swamps. The above will then give rise to 217 ha of agricultural croplands, 24 ha of flood plain agriculture, 48 ha of grasslands and 48 ha of bare surfaces. In addition water bodies will expand by 16 ha.

Given government’s policy of food security and poverty alleviation this cannot be considered all together bad for the economy in the short run. This is because Agricultural output will increase by N 7.5 million, Petroleum by N 9.7 million and all other sectors combined by about N 9 million. About N 2 million of investment and N 22 million of private consumption will also be induced though forestry output will increase minimally by only N 0.103 million.

 

Fuelwood Production

To produce 1,000 m3 of fuel wood on the other hand will require 1,245 m3 of round wood output. Only 43 m3 of saw log and veneer logs will be produced. This will affect 46.6 ha of high forest, 399 ha of dominantly trees and woodlands, 52 ha of shrub lands and 32 ha of fresh water marsh and swamps. The above will induce 267.97 ha of agricultural crop lands, 31 ha of flood plain agriculture, 61 ha of grass lands, 60 ha of undesirable bare surfaces and 20 ha of water bodies.

The effect on the rest of the economy is equally beneficial in the short run especially as agricultural output will increase by as much as N 9.2 million while petroleum GDP by N 12.3 million. Other sectors combined will increase by as much as N 11 million. Capital formation will increase by N 2.4 million while private consumption will increase by N 27.5 million. Forestry GDP will increase by only N 0.127 million.

 

Saw log and Veneer logs

There is a scarcity of saw log and veneer logs in the country. This is because in order to produce 1,000 m3 of saw logs and veneer logs will require the exploitation of 704 ha of high forest, 4,027.6 ha of dominantly trees and wood lands and 364.8 ha of fresh water marsh and swamps. The production of 1,000 m3 of saw log and veneer logs will also generate demand for 14,000 m3 of round wood, 11,130 m3 of fuel wood and 878 m3 of industrial round wood.

Under the present situation, this will induce 2,496 ha of agricultural cropland, 384 ha of flood plain agriculture, 694 ha of grass lands and 594 ha of undesirable bare surfaces. Water bodies will increase by 221.5 ha.

These trends become clearer when we examine sawn wood and ply wood production respectively.

 

Sawn wood

In order to produce 1,000 m3 of sawn wood, 1,960 m3 of industrial round wood and 1,676 m3 of saw logs and veneer logs will be required and this will entail the exploitation of 1,083.5 ha of high forest which in turn induces 340.6 ha of dominantly shrubs and grass lands.

 

Plywood

To produce 1,000 m3 of plywood on the other hand under the present circumstances reveals a supply gap of 1,11 0,849 m3 of round wood. For this gap to be bridged will require an increase of 33,975 ha of high forest, 390,551 ha of dominantly trees and woodlands, 50,601 ha of dominantly shrub lands and 27,929 ha of fresh water marsh and swamps. This will also imply that 226,919.5 ha of agricultural crop land, 25,839 ha of flood plain agriculture, 54,604 ha of grass lands, 58,915 ha of bare surfaces and 21, 929 ha of water bodies be given up and reclaimed for forestry. However, to satisfy the above immediate need for ply wood will require N 9.73 billion in import bills with the result that all sectoral GDP’s or output will be depressed considerably.

The need for conservation becomes more evident when the analysis revealed that in order to increase forestry GDP by N 1.0 million will require the production of 6,863 m3 of round wood and 5,391 m3 of fuel wood. These will in turn require the exploitation of 201.86 ha of high forest, 1,881 ha of dominantly trees and shrub lands, 466 ha of dominantly shrub land and grasses and 164 ha of fresh water swamp and marsh. Under the present paradigm, this will give rise to 1,785 ha of agricultural crop land, 155 ha of flood plain agriculture, 343 ha of grass lands, 328.9 ha of bare surfaces and 90 ha of water bodies.

Though agricultural output will increase by as much as N 76 million, Petroleum by N 102 million and all other sectors combined by N 83 million in the short run. The long run effect will not be self-sustaining and could be detrimental.

 

Other Sectoral Effects on Forestry

Agricultural crop production actually induces demand for round wood and fuel wood production and actually consumes forested lands and wood lands. The greatest impact however in this direction is made by the Construction sector followed by the Housing sector.

An increase of N 1.0 million in agricultural crop production will induce demand for 85 m3 of round wood and 67 m3 of fuel wood. This will only produce N 13,000 of value added in forestry but will consume 23 ha of dominantly trees, wood lands and shrub lands, 6 ha of dominantly shrub lands, 2.5 ha of high forest and 2 ha of fresh water marsh and swamps.

A N 1.0 million increase in Construction output on the other hand will induce demand for 3,559 m3 of round wood and 2,782 m3 of fuel wood. In addition a supply gap of 2 m3 in plywood production will exist. Though forestry GDP will increase by as much as N 513,000. Agriculture and Petroleum by N 39 million and N 53 million respectively, about 1,042 ha of dominantly trees, woodlands and shrub lands, 239 ha of dominantly shrub and grasses as well as 90 ha of fresh water marsh and swamps will be devastated. Housing development has similar but milder effect on forestry.

 

Effects of Macro-economic Variables on Forestry

Most macro-economic variables affect forestry but the most profound effects are caused by kerosene price and domestic fuel price increases, interest rate, inflation rate and growth in labour force.

Indeed an increase of N 1.0/litre of kerosene price will induce demand for 5.46 million m3 of round wood and 4.13 million m3 of fuel wood and will create a supply gap of 2,869 m3 in plywood production. Though forestry GDP will increase by as much as N 479.5 million with all other sectoral outputs increasing substantially, the result is that 1.3 million ha of dominantly trees, wood lands and shrub lands, 426,983 ha of dominantly grasses, 119,959 ha of fresh water marsh and swamps and 41,442 ha of forested fresh water swamps will be required and subsequently converted into agriculture, bare surfaces and water bodies in the process. The effects of the other variables that is, domestic fuel price increases, interest rate increases, labour force increases (related to population increases), inflation rate and exchange rate increases are similar.

Population pressure on the other hand, is felt directly on the high forest where it results in deforestation and transfer of forestlands into agriculture. Indeed a million increase in population will create a demand for 183,427 ha of agricultural crop land, 9, 120 ha of pasture lands, 5,892 ha of forested fresh water swamps and 9,809 ha of inland fisheries or water bodies. However, this will result in the deforestation of 19,726 ha of high forest.

It is now obvious that forestland is the receptacle on which agriculture and rural development generally rests. However, care must be taken to ensure that trend is not counter productive.

 

 

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